BAGEL: A Bayesian Graphical Model for Inferring Drug Effect on Depression Longitudinally in People with HIV

Abstract

Access and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) has transformed the face of HIV infection from a fatal to a chronic disease. However, ART is also known for its side effects. Studies have reported that ART is associated with depressive symptomatology. Large-scale HIV clinical databases with individuals’ longitudinal depression records, ART medications, and clinical characteristics offer researchers unprecedented opportunities to study the ef- fects of ART drugs on depression over time. We develop BAGEL, a Bayesian graphical model to investigate longitudinal effects of ART drugs on a range of depressive symptoms while adjusting for participants’ demographic, behavior, and clinical characteristics, and taking into account the heterogeneous population through a Bayesian nonparametric prior. We evaluate BAGEL through simulation studies. Application to a dataset from the Women’s Interagency HIV Study yields interpretable and clinically useful results. BAGEL not only can improve our understanding of ART drugs effects on disparate depression symptoms, but also has clinical utility in guiding informed and effective treatment selection to facilitate precision medicine in HIV.